Q4 is won before Black Week

Most people make their buying decision before they buy, while they read and compare. In Q4, this happens twice: first in the weeks before Black Week, then in the weeks before Christmas. That is why campaign planning for Q4 should be built around two phases, consideration and purchase, that repeat. Contextual marketing does the most good in the consideration phases, when people are reading about what they plan to buy or do.

Six in ten Norwegians don't trust Black Week deals. Even so, 37 per cent planned to shop, with an average budget of NOK 4,051.

So people do shop, but with scepticism. When trust in the deals is low, many choose brands they already know and have read about. That work doesn't happen during the sales week. It happens in the weeks before. And right now, plans and budgets for Christmas are being set.

Why don't people trust Black Week deals?

The scepticism has good reason. In Prisjakt's 2025 survey, almost 900,000 Norwegians said they suspect they were misled during Black Week the year before. Prisjakt also tracked prices ahead of the sale. In October 2025, 14 per cent of all the prices they tracked rose by 10 per cent or more, just weeks before the sales week.

For consumers, this means a deal alone is not enough. They want to know that the product is good and that the brand can be trusted. They make that judgement before the sale starts, often by reading.

For you as an advertiser, this means your brand should be present while that judgement is being made. If you only show up in the sales week, you compete for attention when the pressure is highest and trust is lowest.

Two phases, two rounds

Consideration before Black Week (October to mid-November)

Surveys from Norway, Sweden and Denmark show the same pattern: people plan and compare more before they buy. They read product reviews, gift guides and comparisons in media they trust. This is where preferences are formed, and where a relevant ad becomes part of the decision instead of an interruption.

With contextual advertising, your ad appears next to articles about what the customer is considering, without using personal data. In Kobler, you choose keywords and topics, and your ad appears in relevant editorial media in Norway, Sweden or Denmark.

The brand that is present now is already on the list when the sale starts.

Purchase in Black Week

In this phase, most people know what they want. In the media mix, search, retargeting and email to existing customers do most of the work, because they capture a decision that has already been made.

Consideration before Christmas (December)

Once Black Week is over, attention moves to Christmas, and a new round of consideration begins. People read about Christmas food, Christmas parties, gift ideas, travel and what to do between Christmas and New Year. They are planning what to buy and do, and many haven't decided yet. For brands in food, retail, travel and experiences, this creates many relevant moments, and there is less competition for attention than in the sales week.

Purchase before Christmas

In the last days before Christmas, people buy food and last-minute gifts, and once again search and email do most of the work.

What the phases look like in practice

How to build your Q4 campaign plan

1. Split your budget by phase, not just by date

Look at where in the quarter your customers make their decision, and put your budget there.

An example: an electronics brand can use October and the first half of November to be present next to product reviews and comparisons. In Black Week, search and email can take over, because the customer has already decided. In December, the brand can return next to gift guides for those who are still looking. Each channel gets the job it does best, and no part of the budget has to compete with the whole market in the same week.

2. Find the contexts for each consideration phase

In contextual marketing, you start with what your customers read while they are deciding, not with who they are. In Kobler, you do this by creating a Content Target, where keywords decide which articles your ads appear next to. You can also narrow it down by topics and media.

A good starting point is to choose keywords for each consideration phase and adjust along the way. For a food brand, that could be weekday dinners and dinner tips in October, and traditional Christmas dishes and Christmas baking in December. For a travel company, it could be autumn and winter holidays in October, and New Year trips in December. If you're not sure where to start, you'll get help finding good keywords for your topic.

Once your keywords are in place, you'll see real examples of articles where your ads would have appeared if the campaign had been live. That way, you can adjust your keywords for better relevance, or remove articles you want to avoid, before the campaign starts.

Kobler has a built-in sensitivity filter that automatically screens out sensitive articles. If you represent a humanitarian organisation and want to appear next to these stories, you can turn the filter off. You can also add your own words and phrases to avoid, on top of those already in the filter. Read more about how contextual advertising works in Kobler.

3. Match your message to the moment

An ad next to a product review should help the reader compare. An ad next to a Christmas recipe can offer an idea. Same brand, different job.

You don't need many versions. One message for consideration before Black Week and one for consideration before Christmas usually does more than one general ad running all quarter. To learn more about how context fits into the rest of your plan, read Strengthen your media plan with contextual advertising.

Q4 is the start of 2027

What you learn in Q4 becomes the basis for next year's budget. Decide now which numbers you'll track in each phase, and why:

• Consideration before Black Week: Which contexts drove the most clicks and visits? Did searches for your brand rise in the weeks after?
• Black Week: How many buyers had been in contact with your brand before the sale started?
• Consideration before Christmas: Which Christmas topics worked best, and for which products?

With these answers, you'll know in January which contexts worked, and you'll have numbers to point to when the 2027 plan needs defending.

On the campaign page in Kobler, you can follow how your campaign and each ad are performing. You can also look back over the last 12 months. Many topics follow the same rhythm year after year, so the history gives a good indication of when interest in your topics rises, for example when people start reading about Christmas food or gifts. You can then plan and adapt your next campaign around it. Every Content Target can be reused, so the contexts you build this year can be the starting point for next year's campaign.

In short

• Trust isn't built during the sales week. It's built in the weeks before, while people read and decide.
• Build your Q4 campaign plan around consideration and purchase, and remember that both happen twice.
• Find the contexts and message for each consideration phase, and decide where you don't want to appear.
• Use Q4 to learn, so you're in a stronger position when you plan 2027.

Want to be present in both consideration phases? Set up your autumn and Christmas campaign in Kobler, or let one of our advisers help you.

Frequently asked questions

What should a Q4 campaign plan look like?
Split the quarter into two phases, consideration and purchase, which happen twice: around Black Week and around Christmas. Put most of your contextual budget into the consideration phases, and let search and email handle most of the purchase phases.

When should I start my Christmas campaign?
In October. That's when people read and compare, before the sales start and competition for attention is at its highest.

Does contextual advertising work during Black Week?
It does the most good before and after. During Black Week, most people have already decided, so search, retargeting and email do most of the work.

What is contextual marketing?
Advertising that appears next to content about the same subject as the ad, such as a gift ad next to a gift guide. It uses what people are reading right now, not personal data. Read more about contextual marketing.

Curious where your ads could appear in Q4?

Not a Kobler customer yet? Talk to one of our advisers, and we'll show you how it works.

Sources: Prisjakt/Opinion (NO), Ipsos/Klarna (SE), BCG (DK), 2025. Prisjakt, price development October 2025.